Authors - Britt Kristoff B. Montalvo, Vicente Pitogo Abstract - This paper presents a data-driven forecasting and anomaly detection dashboard for live births in Surigao del Norte, utilizing the Family Health Service Information System (FHSIS) data from 2021 and onwards. The research methodology is based on the CRISP-DM framework, with business under-standing for the needs of maternal services planning in the provinces and municipalities, data preparation for municipalities by quarters, time aware modeling, evaluation, and deployment through the API and visualization layer. The research employs several machine learning techniques for forecasting, such as ARIMA/SARIMA, Exponential Smoothing (ETS and Holt-Winters), and the Prophet method, along with a naïve method. The performance of the models is evaluated through the symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE). A strict evaluation criterion for the deployment of the model is also implemented, such as the availability of sufficient data points in the past for the model to be deployed (i.e., 12 data points in the past), the accuracy of the model (sMAPE < 20%), and the performance of the model in comparison with the naïve method (MASE < 1). A low confidence filter is also implemented for the series with intermittent data to prevent incorrect results. The results show high reliability of the forecasting model for the entire province and better interpretability for strategic planning. However, the results also show that some of the municipalities with low population volumes and intermittent data points pose a challenge in the operation of the model.
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